Climate Change Will Cost 4.6 Billion Euros a Year

According to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), without changes in the world economy and a reduction in gas emissions, climate change will cost 4.6 billion euros per year until 2070, increasing further thereafter.

The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) – in conjunction with the University College of London (UCL) – is a UK initiative which supports companies and cities through the publication of the likely impact of global warming.

The two entities created models on the average costs of global damage caused by climate change if nothing is done to mitigate them (in a “business as usual” scenario), estimating that by the year 2200 they could reach an astronomical cost of 26.4 billion euros (26.4 billion) each year.

The damage caused by climate change, according to the document to which News Service Lusa had access, will lead to a 10% reduction in the world GDP growth rate by 2050 and by 25% by 2100.

In a scenario where countries meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions – which aims to limit the global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius (and preferably 1.5 degrees) above the pre-season average -industrial -, climate change will still have an annual cost that will reach 1.5 billion euros in 2070.

Without measures to contain global warming, the report shows that the costs of climate change will be three times higher, going from 1.5 billion euros to 4.6 billion euros a year, and that in the next century it may even be 17 times higher.

Containing climate change also comes at a cost, but a less expensive one, with the authors of the report estimating that it will peak at € 5.9 billion per year by 2050. The document notes that there is a growing recognition of the effects that climate change has on long term world economic growth, but adds that attempts to incorporate climate-related risks into main macroeconomic indicators have been limited due difficulties in capturing this information.

The report, entitled “Costing the Earth – Climate Damage Costs and GDP,” uses three models to arrive at the costs involved and outlines two long-term scenarios, one with an increase in temperatures of 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement, and another based on “business as usual”, which implies a temperature increase of 4.4°C until the end of the present century.

In a scenario where no measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the costs of damage caused by climate change are much higher and include environmental damage. On the contrary, by investing in mitigation actions, costs will be lower and will peak in 2070, but still at a much lower level, according to the document.

The authors stress the importance of taking into account the impact climate change has on GDP and understanding regional and sectoral differences.  They concentrate on the “significant negative impacts” on agriculture in regions like India or the African continent, in contrast to what should happen in temperate regions and the associated benefits.

Concluding, Carole Ferguson, Head Researcher at the CDP stated, “the impact of climate change on GDP varies significantly between regions, with developing economies like India suffering the most. Given the potential scale of damage costs and the implications for disrupting the global economic system, authorities cannot simply expect the right regulatory policies to be put in place. Policy makers, industrialists and the financial system  must be proactive in investing in and adaptation to policies designed to avoid these high costs.”

However, for this to work all such policies must be applied uniformly, with no exemptions!

For more information on the Paris Agreement, please see below.  Details take from EU website https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en

The Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement sets out a global framework to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. It also aims to strengthen countries’ ability to deal with the impacts of climate change and support them in their efforts.

The Paris Agreement is the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate change agreement, adopted at the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015.

The EU and its Member States are among the close to 190 Parties to the Paris Agreement. The EU formally ratified the agreement on 5 October 2016, thus enabling its entry into force on 4 November 2016. For the agreement to enter into force, at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions had to deposit their instruments of ratification.

Key elements

The Paris Agreement is a bridge between today’s policies and climate-neutrality before the end of the century.

Mitigation: reducing emissions

Governments agreed

• a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels;
• to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change;
• on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries;
• to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science, so as to achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century.

As a contribution to the objectives of the agreement, countries have submitted comprehensive national climate action plans (nationally determined contributions, NDCs). These are not yet enough to reach the agreed temperature objectives, but the agreement traces the way to further action.

Transparency and global stocktake

Governments agreed to

• come together every 5 years to assess the collective progress towards the long-term goals and inform Parties in updating and enhancing their nationally determined contributions;
• report to each other and the public on how they are implementing climate action;
• track progress towards their commitments under the Agreement  through a robust transparency and accountability system.

Adaptation

Governments agreed to

• strengthen societies’ ability to deal with the impacts of climate change;
• provide continued and enhanced international support for adaptation to developing countries.

Loss and damage

The agreement also

• recognises the importance of averting, minimising and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change;
• acknowledges the need to cooperate and enhance the understanding, action and support in different areas such as early warning systems, emergency preparedness and risk insurance.

Role of cities, regions and local authorities

The agreement recognises the role of non-Party stakeholders in addressing climate change, including cities, other subnational authorities, civil society, the private sector and others.

They are invited to

• scale up their efforts and support actions to reduce emissions;
• build resilience and decrease vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change;
• uphold and promote regional and international cooperation.

Support

• The EU and other developed countries will continue to support climate action to reduce emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts in developing countries.
• Other countries are encouraged to provide or continue to provide such support voluntarily.
• Developed countries intend to continue their existing collective goal to mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020 and extend this until 2025. A new and higher goal will be set for after this period.

The Katowice package adopted at the UN climate conference (COP24) in December 2018 contains common and detailed rules, procedures and guidelines that operationalise the Paris Agreement.

It covers all key areas including transparency, finance, mitigation and adaptation, and provides flexibility to Parties that need it in light of their capacities, while enabling them to implement and report on their commitments in a transparent, complete, comparable and consistent manner.

It will also enable the Parties to progressively enhance their contributions to tackling climate change, in order to meet the agreement’s long-term goals.

Outside of the formal intergovernmental negotiations, countries, cities and regions, businesses and civil society members across the world are taking action to accelerate cooperative climate action in support of the Paris Agreement under the Global Climate Action Agenda.

The EU has been at the forefront of international efforts to fight climate change. It was instrumental in brokering the Paris Agreement and continues to show global leadership.

The EU’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, under its wider 2030 climate and energy framework. All key EU legislation for implementing this target was adopted by the end of 2018.

Samantha Gannon

info at madeira-weekly.com